Vietnam: Mangroves’ multiple benefits

Papua New Guinea: Conservation and empowerment

Vietnam Mangrove

Stage 4: Identify Solutions

By now, you have <a href="https://dev.natureprotects.org/posts/engage-others" target="_blank">engaged all key parties (stage 2)</a> and <a href="https://dev.natureprotects.org/posts/assess-context" target="_blank">completed the assessments (stage 3)</a>. If you find that there are any gaps, address them first before proceeding. This is because adequate and inclusive stakeholder engagement and robust assessments are decisive success factors. Not spending enough time on stages 2 and 3 may save you time now, but could well lead to less sustainable and effective results later on (or even complete failures).&nbsp;Furthermore, you should have defined your <a href="https://dev.natureprotects.org/posts/assess-context" target="_blank">high-level objective (step 3.4)</a> by now. Let us look at your objective in greater detail: what is it that you are trying to achieve?&nbsp;In one or more ways, your objective is about <a href="https://dev.natureprotects.org/posts/ideate-and-scope" target="_blank">addressing the problems you identified (step 1.1)</a> and that you gained further information on through the <a href="https://dev.natureprotects.org/posts/assess-context" target="_blank">assessment of community risk (3.1), ecosystems (3.2), and external context (3.3)</a>. Broadly speaking, your objective should aim to enhance the resilience of coastal communities. How that translates into practice depends primarily on the hazard profile. You may have different priorities for areas frequently exposed to fast-onset hazards than for areas that are mainly exposed to long-term stressors.&nbsp;In the TNC <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/sh/zcj3yrz8nn6adfu/AACTrJZgZosQ60XRFEp9x0Tya/F.4%20Solution%20finder%20(for%20stage%204)?dl=0&amp;subfolder_nav_tracking=1" target="_blank">solution finder</a>’s sheet 0, enter and classify your objectives: what is the primary goal, what are secondary goals?Note that all categories are generally suitable to enhance resilience. However, they act in different ways - you can think of them as five lines of defense (see schematic).Reducing exposure: Exposure to hazards can be reduced by putting something in the way between the oncoming force and the target area, thereby reducing the energy with which it hits a community.For instance, a coral reef or breakwater absorbs some of the energy of a storm surge, so that less energy effectively hits the coastline (and communities). Similarly, a mangrove forest can help reduce exposure to groundwater salinity that may otherwise affect water usability and agricultural yields.Decreasing sensitivity is about lowering the possible effect a hazard or stressor can have on communities. Measures to decrease sensitivity can include:<ul><li class="ql-indent-1">Reinforcing homes, buildings, and critical infrastructure so they are more robust and can resist storm and flood loads.</li><li class="ql-indent-1">Diversifying livelihoods (income and food): if one source fails, there are others to rely on. Think of ‘not having all eggs in one basket’.</li><li class="ql-indent-1">Adjusting crop types and agricultural practices so that produce is less susceptible to be affected. Examples include the adoption of more flood-resilient crops or the creation of irrigation systems.</li></ul>Improving preparedness is largely about non-structural measures such as response systems (e.g. local response teams, disaster management agencies), the strengthening of evacuation systems (routes, drills, emergency shelters), as well as the promotion of preparedness amongst households (e.g. go bags, life vests, provision of emergency supplies) and schools.Enhancing coping capacity is about strengthening the ability to deal with residual risk. Even the most resilient communities will occasionally be hit by hazards and stressors. Measures include risk transfer (promotion of insurance, calamity funds), the creation of buffers (savings, food reserves), the use of alternative food and income sources (e.g. collecting non-timber forest products, labor migration), and efforts to strengthen social capital (mutual support, groups, collective action).Raising adaptive capacity is critical to timely adjustment to emerging and predicted long-term stressors. Early and anticipatory adaptation tends to pay off more than reactive adaptation. Adaptive capacity is based on the timeliness, scope, and scale of adjustments made in light of emerging information (anticipated sea-level rise, more frequent and intense storms).Adaptive capacity consists of a) access to information on trends and stressors, b) swift, effective and inclusive decision-making processes, c) access to resources and techniques to adapt, and d) the actions of adaptation. Thus, you can raise the adaptive capacity of communities by strengthening these four components. For instance, this may include a) providing channels to obtain long-term climate projections and seasonal forecasts, b) cross-cutting efforts to strengthen decision-making, c) the creation of adaptation funds and formation of partnerships with technical institutes, and d) guidance for the implementation on specific actions of adaptation (Figure 6).At this stage, it is useful to be clear about your primary objective. It is good practice to combine measures that run in support of the various categories. As described earlier, ecosystems offer benefits in terms of protection (reducing exposure), and economic, food and environmental security, as well as social gains (decreasing sensitivity, enhancing coping capacity).

1. Confirm & classify objectives

Being clear about your objectives, let us move to the next step: what measures could be principally available? Have the information from the assessments of community risk, ecosystems and context at hand and conduct this step with the members of your steering committee.For this step, use the decision flow-chart screens&nbsp;in the <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/sh/zcj3yrz8nn6adfu/AACTrJZgZosQ60XRFEp9x0Tya/F.4%20Solution%20finder%20(for%20stage%204)?dl=0&amp;subfolder_nav_tracking=1" target="_blank">solution finder user manual</a>, and enter the results in the <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/sh/zcj3yrz8nn6adfu/AACTrJZgZosQ60XRFEp9x0Tya/F.4%20Solution%20finder%20(for%20stage%204)?dl=0&amp;subfolder_nav_tracking=1" target="_blank">solution finder</a>'s sheet 4.2.Start with the general screen. This determines which ecosystem-specific screens you will need to complete. This general screen eliminates any ecosystems that have never existed in your target area from further analysis. If an ecosystem never existed in the area, it is highly unlikely that it can be established. An exception to this rule concerns shelter belts, which can be established without a history of these belts in the area.Next, complete all specific screens as directed by the general screen. For instance, if you have a previously or currently existing coral reef and mangroves in your area, complete the screens A (coral reefs), C (mangroves) and G (shelter belts).On each of these specific screens, answer the questions and follow the path until you come to a result for the specific measures. If a measure is deemed feasible on this process, change its status to ‘feasible' in sheet 4.2.Note that in sheet 4.2, all measures are set to 'not feasible' by default.

2. Explore feasible measures

So far, we have only looked at green structural measures. In sheet 4.3 of the <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/sh/zcj3yrz8nn6adfu/AACTrJZgZosQ60XRFEp9x0Tya/F.4%20Solution%20finder%20(for%20stage%204)?dl=0&amp;subfolder_nav_tracking=1" target="_blank">solution finder</a>, you will find all feasible green structural measures you previously identified.In this step, you will add possible non-structural and gray structural measures. You can only add up to five from each category, so focus on those that you deem feasible and most important. We now have a broad menu of non-structural, green and gray measures. Congratulations!Next, we'll narrow down the menu by running two checks. Narrowing down the menu helps us reduce complexity and makes it easier to proceed through the subsequent steps.For each item on the menu, you should first check the expected effectiveness of the measure, then check the prevalence of specific success factors. Add the following information on each measure.What is the expected effect?How far can the measure be reasonably expected to<ul><li>reduce exposure?</li><li>decrease sensitivity?</li><li>improve preparedness?</li><li>enhance coping capacity?</li><li>raise adaptive capacity?</li></ul>Use the drop-down menu (major, medium, minor, no effect) and add narrative information based on the data you have obtained so far.To what extent do specific success factors exist?Each of the measures has a specific set of factors, which you can find at the end of the <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/sh/zcj3yrz8nn6adfu/AACTrJZgZosQ60XRFEp9x0Tya/F.4%20Solution%20finder%20(for%20stage%204)?dl=0&amp;subfolder_nav_tracking=1" target="_blank">solution finder user manual</a>. To what extent do these factors exist in your context? Use the drop-down menu (strong, medium, weak, none) and add narrative information, using the data you have gathered so far.Pre-select measuresOn the basis of the expected effectiveness and prevailing success factors, select those that have the greatest potential towards reaching your objectives.It is a good idea to have multiple measures listed for each of the five objective categories (reducing exposure, decreasing sensitivity, improving preparedness, raising adaptive capacity, enhancing coping capacity).Review all feasible measures and their scores, then make your pre-selection. These are the building blocks of the options you will develop in step 4.4.Congratulations! You have now completed the menu of measures — which may be quite long at this point. Not to worry, as we will narrow down the menu to the most suitable ones.

3. Screen for suitability

Sheet 4.4 of the <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/sh/zcj3yrz8nn6adfu/AACTrJZgZosQ60XRFEp9x0Tya/F.4%20Solution%20finder%20(for%20stage%204)?dl=0&amp;subfolder_nav_tracking=1" target="_blank">solution finder</a> shows all pre-selected measures on the left. Now, combine these measures to identify options (an option is some combination of measures). Sheet 4.4 lets you build up to five different options (numbered 1-5).Develop option 1 as the smallest intervention (in terms of scope and scale) and option 5 as the most comprehensive option.Now, try inserting alternative measures that have the same purpose (e. g. reef crest rehabilitation and artificial breakwaters as alternative measures to absorb wave energy).

4. Develop options

While we cannot predict the future, we can develop a set of informed guesses in terms of expected patterns of hazards and climatic stressors. In order to compare the options we have just created, you’ll develop three scenarios in sheet 4.5 of the <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/sh/zcj3yrz8nn6adfu/AACTrJZgZosQ60XRFEp9x0Tya/F.4%20Solution%20finder%20(for%20stage%204)?dl=0&amp;subfolder_nav_tracking=1" target="_blank">solution finder</a>. Each scenario is a prediction of the future, using different assumptions. It is important to understand that all three scenarios are based on the premise that no actions are taken to reduce disaster risk.The scenarios are about the cost of inaction. The timeframes of all scenarios are set to 20 years. You can change the time-frame but must apply it to all three scenarios to keep them comparable.All scenarios are based on the history of damages and losses over the past ten years. You will need to enter hazard and loss data first (see the user manual for the detailed process), then all scenarios will be automatically calculated.Scenario A is an extrapolation from the recent history of hazard events and climatic stressors. It assumes that hazards and stressors will continue to emerge with the same frequency and strength as they did in the past ten years.You may have already completed a historical timeline as part of the community risk assessment. Use this information and fill the gaps as needed.In particular, you should gather and complete these data:<ul><li>What hazards and stressors have occurred and when?</li><li>What was their strength?</li><li>Who and what was affected and how?</li><li>What damages were caused (in monetary value)?</li><li>What losses (direct and indirect) were caused (in monetary value)?</li></ul>Try to be accurate with monetary values. If no data exist, use informed guesses on the basis of available information. For example, if several houses were destroyed and you do not know their value, find out the average building cost and multiply it by the number of destroyed houses.Ensure that necessary expertise is involved in this process.&nbsp;If your steering committee does not have the right expertise, ask others! Getting accurate values in scenario A is important&nbsp;because the calculation of overall cost effectiveness depends on it. The <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/sh/zcj3yrz8nn6adfu/AACTrJZgZosQ60XRFEp9x0Tya/F.4%20Solution%20finder%20(for%20stage%204)?dl=0&amp;subfolder_nav_tracking=1" target="_blank">solution finder</a> automatically calculates some important values, including the annual probability rate, average and annualized hazard losses.Scenarios B and C are variations of scenario A. The basic approach assumes that the level of damages and losses will progressively increase by 10% (scenario B) and 20% (scenario C), primarily as a result of increasing climate change impact. You may change these percentages to other values if you can obtain relevant local projections on expected climate change impact over coming decades.Congratulations – you now have calculated the cost of inaction under different scenarios. You have completed half of the steps in stage 4!

5. Develop scenarios

Next, let us bring together the options we have created in step 4.4 with the scenarios developed in step 4.5. The <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/sh/zcj3yrz8nn6adfu/AACTrJZgZosQ60XRFEp9x0Tya/F.4%20Solution%20finder%20(for%20stage%204)?dl=0&amp;subfolder_nav_tracking=1" target="_blank">solution finder</a>’s sheet 4.6 will help you through this process.Define budget linesEach of your options includes a range of measures. We now need to identify the budget lines (main cost items) for green, gray, and non-structural measures, as well as for other costs that cannot be attributed to specific measures.Estimate costsNow, add the costs for each budget line. Try to gather information on costs from similar efforts and ask experts for estimates. Be diligent in compiling this information. The total direct cost of your respective options is calculated automatically.In addition to these direct costs of the initial effort, there may also be long-term indirect costs to monitor and maintain your outcomes. Think, for instance, of costs for replanting, for external advice, and for activities that help to uphold skills and awareness (e.g. refresher trainings). For the time being, it does not matter who bears these costs (it could be the government, the community, or be derived from other funding arrangements).The total cost of each option is automatically calculated and includes the direct cost plus the annual indirect cost multiplied by the number of years of our analytical timeframe (set to 20 years by default).Estimate benefitsFor each option, calculate the benefits on the basis of all available information. Note that not all benefits can always be quantified or monetized (expressed in money values). If you cannot monetize certain benefits, add these at the bottom of sheet 4.6. However, be aware that the more benefits you can monetize, the higher the eventual benefit-cost ratio will be.Consider the following types of benefits for each of the option under scenarios A, B and C:<ul><li>Protective benefits</li><li>Economic co-benefits</li><li>Environmental benefits</li></ul>Note that there is a fundamental difference between protective benefits and all other benefits. Whereas the latter materialize in an ongoing fashion (e.g. increased income from fishing, improved water quality), the former materialize only in a hazard event, in the form of avoided damages and losses.Understand that in sheet 4.7, you need to enter the expected damages and losses for all your options – under each of the three different scenarios. The formulas are set up to then calculate the difference between the damages and losses under your options and inaction. This difference is equal to the avoided damages and losses; they are your protective benefit of your various options.The benefit-cost ratioAt the bottom of sheet 4.6, the <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/sh/zcj3yrz8nn6adfu/AACTrJZgZosQ60XRFEp9x0Tya/F.4%20Solution%20finder%20(for%20stage%204)?dl=0&amp;subfolder_nav_tracking=1" target="_blank">solution finder</a> presents all your options with their respective benefit-cost ratio (BCR) under scenarios A, B and C. The BCR is the total amount of benefits divided by the total amount of costs over the projected timeframe.A BCR above 1.0 is ‘positive’ (the costs paid off). A BCR of 4.0 would mean that for every dollar spent, 4 dollars are expected to be generated in benefits.

6. Estimate costs and benefits

Because the previous steps were rather technical, it was useful to restrict the engagement to the members of your steering committee and additional experts as needed.Having now identified the BCRs for all your options under different scenarios, we recommend sharing and discussing the results with your stakeholders. Present and explain the results to the wider community and make sure that the underlying logic is understood, in particular:<ul><li>what the different options entail;</li><li>the scenarios;</li><li>the benefit-cost logic;</li><li>assumptions you made in the calculation; and</li><li>benefits that were not included in the calculation.</li></ul>Have a look at the results: which option offers the greatest benefit-cost ratios under the three scenarios? You may explore the details: who benefits and how?What are the disbenefits (negative side-effects)? When comparing the options, make sure that you don’t focus exclusively on the BCR.Keep those benefits not included in the BCR in mind, and also think of the extent to which each option is aligned with your objectives.Looking at the results from such a broad angle, pre-select the two most promising options. Give time for adequate deliberation so that all voices can be heard. Consider voting or a ranking exercise on these two preferred options.

7. Compare options

Sustaining the results of an intervention always matters. After all, you want to make sure that the initial investments continue to bring benefits for many years. There are three specific challenges to sustainability.First, the success of DRR is usually invisible. Ideally, it leads to non-events — to hazards not turning into disasters. People may not appreciate the value of avoided losses because they remain abstract.Second, if efforts focus exclusively on DRR and&nbsp;protective benefits, there may be a long interval between the investment and the gain (avoided losses). If cyclones happen&nbsp;every&nbsp;year, there is no problem.But if they occur only every eight years, people may forget and lose interest in caring for a protective measure.Third, ecosystems are dynamic by nature. Their health needs&nbsp;to be nurtured and monitored. To maintain their desired function, continuous care is needed long after the conclusion of the initial effort (likely an NGO-supported project).Sustainability can be translated to the willingness and capacity of local owners as well as the strength of the enabling environment. It must not be an afterthought.You should keep sustainability concerns integral to your decision-making early on: to what extent will communities and stakeholders be able and willing to commit to and deliver the stewardship of reefs, mangroves, or other measures included in your options?Consider asking the following questions:<ul><li>how can the required resources (funds, equipment) be continuously secured for the long term?</li><li>to what extent can technical expertise and skills be maintained and secured?</li><li>what drives the community to sustain the outcomes?</li><li>in how far are external enablers likely to endure (e.g. rules, laws, budget support)?</li></ul>By having communities and stakeholders already engaged, you already have a head start: the sense of process ownership favours sustainability. If you can identify options and ways that combine long-term protective benefits (avoided losses) with near-term, tangible benefits (such as an increase in fishing income), you have a smart duet of continuous benefits that acts as an incentive to uphold community stewardship.In sheet 4.8 of the <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/sh/zcj3yrz8nn6adfu/AACTrJZgZosQ60XRFEp9x0Tya/F.4%20Solution%20finder%20(for%20stage%204)?dl=0&amp;subfolder_nav_tracking=1" target="_blank">solution finder</a>, add your analysis of the sustainability for the two pre-selected options.

8. Check for sustainability

Through the assessment of feasibility, suitability, effectiveness and sustainability, you can now make a well-informed selection and decide on your solution. Congratulations!In the final sheet of the <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/sh/zcj3yrz8nn6adfu/AACTrJZgZosQ60XRFEp9x0Tya/F.4%20Solution%20finder%20(for%20stage%204)?dl=0&amp;subfolder_nav_tracking=1" target="_blank">solution finder</a> (sheet 4.9), document your decision and summarize your reasons as well as the overall process (who was involved, main discussion points and concerns).Save the <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/sh/zcj3yrz8nn6adfu/AACTrJZgZosQ60XRFEp9x0Tya/F.4%20Solution%20finder%20(for%20stage%204)?dl=0&amp;subfolder_nav_tracking=1" target="_blank">solution finder</a> — it will be an important resource for the detailed elaboration of a plan at the next stage, and could be shared with agencies offering funds for your planned efforts.On a final note, we should end with a caveat: don’t think of your solution as something that is ‘set in stone’. Over time, you should explore how you can adjust it to become even more effective and/or sustainable.One particular aspect concerns integration. The options were assembled out of measures like building blocks. Explore how you can integrate these measures in such a way that their effects mutually reinforce each other.Examples include:<ul><li>the practical involvement of school and youth groups in afforestation activities that are coupled with education in risk management, conservation and science</li><li>the integration of ecosystem care activities with livelihood activities, focusing on the most vulnerable.</li></ul>See case studies Vietnam - Mangroves’ multiple benefits and Papua New Guinea: Conservation and empowerment, which can be found in the box above.

9. Decide on and refine your solution

Use the TNC solution finder as your assistant for this stage. In the toolbox, you will find these files:<ul><li>The <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/vwlgpohaq40u0dj/F.4a%20Solution%20finder%20user%20manual.pptx?dl=0" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(102, 163, 224);">user manual</a>, which is an animated PowerPoint file. It contains decision flowcharts and explains how to fill out the solution finder.</li><li>The solution finder itself, which is an <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/uhv0fsra50gw0mx/F.4b%20Solution%20finder%208.0.xlsx?dl=0" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(102, 163, 224);">Excel file</a>. Complete the sheets to identify your solution.</li><li>An example of a completed solution finder. See <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/b50nu14laorifla/F.4c%20Solution%20finder%20EXAMPLE%20Banyanpura.xlsx?dl=0" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(102, 163, 224);">here</a>.</li></ul>

Toolbox explanation : TNC Solution Finder

<a href="https://media.ifrc.org/ifrc/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2018/03/1310403-Road-Map-to-Community-Resilience-Final-Version_EN-08.pdf" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(102, 102, 0);">The Road Map to Community Resilience (IFRC 2020)</a>The Blue Guide's stage 4 broadly links to the Road Map’s stage 3 (‘taking action for resilience’). This stage should be used for the Road Map’s step 4.1 (go deeper).<a href="https://www.worldwildlife.org/publications/natural-and-nature-based-flood-management-a-green-guide" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(102, 102, 0);">The Flood Management Green Guide (WWF 2016)</a>The Blue Guide's stage 4 broadly links to the Green Guide’s• Chapter 5: structural and non-structural methods;• Chapter 6: urban issues, specifically 6.5 - 6.7; and• Appendix D: resource and cost planning guidance ﻿Are you finished with Stage 4: Identify Solutions? Move on to&nbsp;Stage 5: Make a Plan.

How this stage (Identify Solutions) Links to...

Learn how to identify the most effective options for your context with these steps in this stage:<ul><li><a href="https://www.natureprotects.org/posts/primer" target="_blank">Primer: Understand available measures&nbsp;</a></li><li>Step 4.1 | Confirm &amp; classify objectives</li><li>Step 4.2 | Explore feasible measures</li><li>Step 4.3 | Screen for suitability</li><li>Step 4.4 | Develop options</li><li>Step 4.5 | Develop scenarios</li><li>Step 4.6 | Estimate benefits and costs</li><li>Step 4.7 | Compare options</li><li>Step 4.8 | Check for sustainability</li><li>Step 4.9 | Decide on and refine your solution</li></ul>With the results of your assessment, you now have the information to identify solutions and decide on the most promising combinations to reach your objective. Take your time and work through the steps with your steering committee. Gather more data if you identify gaps. Identify the most sustainable and effective solution by following the nine steps in the path laid out in this chapter.Before starting off, let's clarify four terms:<ul><li>Measure: refers to an individual action item, for example, the afforestation of mangroves or the rehabilitation of reefs.</li><li>Option: the combination of different measures in a package. This may include green and gray structural measures as well as non-structural ones (e.g. improved evacuation systems).</li><li>Scenario: a projection of future conditions over a given timeframe. These will be used to test the effectiveness of options under different assumptions.</li><li>Solution: the eventual option you decide on. The solution should ideally be based on the best performance in terms of sustainability and effectiveness.</li></ul>Principles &amp; tips<ul><li>Keep the steering committee at the heart of the process and ensure that suggested solutions are reviewed and agreed upon by the wider community and group of stakeholders. Keep everyone on board!&nbsp;</li><li>Explore and understand the various measures well. You may want to read the step-by-step guides in appendix A.</li><li>Focus on non-structural measures first, then add green and/or gray structural measures.</li><li>Use the interactive <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/sh/zcj3yrz8nn6adfu/AACTrJZgZosQ60XRFEp9x0Tya/F.4%20Solution%20finder%20(for%20stage%204)?dl=0&amp;subfolder_nav_tracking=1" target="_blank" style="background-color: transparent;">solution finder</a> as your virtual assistant, but make sure that technical experts review the ranking of solutions and support decision-making.</li><li>Ensure that the eventual suite of solutions can be reasonably expected to reach your objective.</li><li>If there are limitations (e.g. funding), consider a phased approach. Focus on what you can do now and add more aspects later on.</li></ul>